Projected Swine Flu Hot Spots

On a scale of 1 to 6, the WHO has just upped the threat level to the United States to 5, just short of maximum panic level...

"All countries should immediately activate their pandemic response plans. ... Certain actions should be undertaken now with increased urgency, and at
an accelerated pace." 



The WHO has just elevated the pandemic threat level in the United States. In doing so, the WHO has moved the pandemic threat alert up to a level five, meaning that it is just short of a widespread pandemic.  The pandemic threat alerts are measured on a six point scale, with a six denoting a widespread human infection.  With the recent informational release that the swine flu is still spreading, it appears that the WHO wanted to prepare us for the worst, and in doing so, upgraded the threat warning.

The fact that the WHO decided to raise the threat level is a bit disconcerting, and it shows that there really could be a real reason to fear the spread of the this flu. The decision, according to the WHO web-site, was based on an assessment of all the available information that they have, coupled with the recommendations of several expert consultants.

Threat Level 5

Phase 5 is characterized by human-to-human spread of the virus into at least two countries in one region.  While most countries will not be affected

at this stage, this declaration of Phase 5 is a strong signal that a pandemic is imminent and that time to finalize the organization, communication, and implementation of the planned mitigation measures is very short.  A term "pandemic" tells us nothing about the seriousness of the disease, and it is true that this particular virus may not produce a lot of severe illness in humans, but, viruses mutate, and the pandemic we start out with may not be the pandemic we end up with.  So it will be some time before we know what we are dealing with.

Threat Level 6

Phase 6 is the pandemic phase, it is characterized by community level outbreaks in at least one other country in a different WHO region in addition to
the criteria defined in Phase 5.  Designation of this phase will indicate that a global pandemic is under way.  In previous pandemics spreading of desease have been characterized by waves of activity taking place over many months.  Once the level of disease activity drops, a critical communications task needs to take place in order to balance the correctness of advising the population that the worst has passed, against the possibility of yet another wave.  Pandemic waves can be separated by months and an immediate “at-ease” signal may be premature.

Changing The Name To H1N1 Virus

The World Health Organization stated that one cannot contract the virus by eating pork, and pointed out that no pig has yet been found that had this particular virus.  Representatives of certain agricultural industries made their displeasure known to the Obama administration, especially Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack, who said during a briefing on Tuesday that "there are a lot of hardworking families whose livelihood depends on us conveying this message of safety...and we want to reinforce the fact that we're doing everything we possibly can to make sure that our hog industry is sound and safe and to make sure that consumers in this country and around the world know that American products are safe."

"This really isn't swine flu. It's H1N1 virus," Vilsack said. "We want to say to consumers here and abroad that there is no risk to you, there is no scientific evidence whatsoever that there is any link between consuming pork, prepared pork products, and the H1N1 virus."

Both U.S. and European officials have said they expect to see swine flu deaths.

In Mexico, where up to 159 people have died from the virus and around 1,300 more are being tested for infection, people struggled with an emergency that has brought normal life virtually to a standstill over the past week.

Worst Case Scenario

Influenza viruses are classified first by type (A, B, or C); then by subtype, and then by strain.  Most influenza viruses, including the recent Mexican “swine flu” H!N!, and so called “bird flu” are type A influenzas.

The influenza pandemic of 1918 was a nasty one.  It killed more people than the first World War (WWI), something like 20 to 40 million people.  It has been credited as the most devastating epidemic in recorded history.  Back then more humans died of influenza in a single year than in four-years of Bubonic Plague that lasted from 1347 to 1351.  The influenza of 1918-1919 was a global disaster.  In 1918 something erupted that seemed as benign as the common cold.  The flu passed around that season was far more than a cold.  In the two years that this scourge ravaged the earth, a fifth of the world's population was infected.  The flu was most deadly for people ages 20 to 40, people in the prime of their lives.  The flu usually kills the elderly and the very young.

This flu pandemic infected 28% of all Americans and an estimated 675,000 Americans died of this influenza, ten times as many as in the first world war.  Were it not for the end of World War One the year 1918 would go down as unforgettable year of suffering and death.  The effect of this influenza pandemic was so severe that the average life span in the US was actually depressed by 10 years.  People were struck with the illness on the street and within hours died rapid deaths.

That pandemic affected everyone.  With one-quarter of the U.S. and 1/5th of the world infected with this flu, it was impossible to escape from it. Even President Woodrow Wilson suffered from the flu in early 1919 while negotiating the crucial treaty of Versailles to end the first World War.   Bodies pilled up as massive deaths of the epidemic spread.  Besides the lack of health care workers and medical supplies, there was a shortage of coffins, morticians and gravediggers.  Conditions in 1918 were not so different from the Black Death in the era of the bubonic plague of the Middle Ages.

If the current flu virus spread as fast as the 1918 pandemic, and if it were as virulent as 1918, then we could expect 2 million deaths world-wide.  However, many things have changed since 1918, and it is therefore highly unlikely that we would see such an exact repetition. Specifically, three factors seem likely to reduce the death rate from any pandemic. First, influenza vaccines exist today.  In 1918 we had none.  Secondly, more sophisticated modeling methodologies are available to us these days that can help us create policies such as school closings and travel bans that help to limit the spread of the virus until sufficient volumes of vaccine become available.  Lastly, modern medicine now has more treatments at its disposal than were available in 1918, including antivirals, mechanical ventilators, and antibiotics to control secondary infections.  Therefore it is unlikely but not impossible that we would again see the high death rates associated with the 1918 influenza pandemic.

About The Author:
This article was written by Mark Soveign who writes for
Wertheim Communications LLC as well as for Mooker.Com